la melodía de mayo

top five:

and i am telling you - jennifer holliday & jessica sanchez

*catapulted jessica sanchez to a level higher than all other american idol artists can only dream of

starships - alex newell and vocal adrenaline of glee

*hands down, alex newell could have, and should have, won the glee project

fantastic baby - big bang

*personally rediscovered big bang only now; 거짓말 or lies from 2007 still one of their best songs

payphone - maroon 5

*introduced last april on the voice, but only had an official live-action music video this may

back in time - pitbull

*embraced every ridiculous and fun thing about mib3


whistle - flo rida

*some kids actually get the subliminal message

gotta be you - one direction

*released in UK late 2011, but why only now in ph, i have no idea

dance again - jennifer lopez

*uh-oh, jlo is becoming more and more n-s-f-c, sayang lang dahil okay naman ang song na'to

season 11 much like season 4

american idol season four

from wikimedia commons
from wikimedia commons
do you still remember how the finale between ms. carrie underwood and mr. bo bice panned out?

going into the finale, everybody thought that carrie was the underdog, while bo was deemed frontrunner? then carrie won, and everybody said hurray for the underdog? (sources: wiki, google)

guess we were wrong. history tells us that she was never in the bottom three ever. bo was in the bottom two once. ms. vonzell solomon, season 4's frontrunner, ended up in third place.

american idol season eleven

guess again. we are seeing the same ridiculousness with season 11, with the genders in reverse.
phillip has never been in bottom three ever. jessica was in the bottom once.
mr. joshua ledet, season 11's ordained frontrunner, ended up in third place.

fox seems to tell people that mr. phillips is an underdog onscreen, but may well in fact had the most number of votes this season.

meanwhile, a lot of people seem to think that ms. sanchez already has the title in the bag, but for all we know she may have been struggling with the votes each week.

learn from history people. will american idol season 11 look like american idol season 4? we will never know, until the 24th of may.

* * * * * * * *  

update: Yes Phillip did win, no surprises there (see previous post: Twitter predicts idol winner).

twitter predicts idol winner

final update: Phillip won! Twitter wanted us to ready ourselves for this news.

* * * * *
update: so far, our prediction holds!

So who do you root for? Is it Mr. Phillips or Ms. Sanchez? What do you think? Sound off in the comments.

* * * * *

in the run-up to the finale, three idol contestants remain: Joshua Ledet, Phillip Phillips, and Jessica Sanchez.

Now, we don't know the voting tally every week, except that Mr. Ledet was in the bottom three twice, and Ms. Sanchez had it once. We can only surmise that Mr. Phillips has always had a huge loving from his voting followers, a belief that hasn't been proven... until now.

light bulb: predict who will win american idol season 11 using their AI11 twitter accounts

rationale: twitter activity of followers are an indirect manifestation of bequeathing sincere love, concern and affection for the contestant they support the most

methodology: Using Twitter, Labs dashboard, and a tiny bit of imagination, we can imagine the finale going in any of three ways:

  • @jsanchezAI11 versus @jledetAI11
  • @pphillipsAI11 versus @jsanchezAI11
  • @jledetAI11 versus @pphillipsAI11

Period covered is April 16 to May 16, or roughly the time after Ms. Sanchez was saved by the judges from being eliminated from the Top 7, up to the present Top 3.

dim the lights. here are your results:

All rights reserved by Visually, Inc.

All rights reserved by Visually, Inc.

All rights reserved by Visually, Inc.
  • Jessica has the most number of followers (331,000) compared to Phillip (281,000) or Joshua (99,000). She also gets the most number of mentions every week for the last 28 days; Phillips is in distant second, while Joshua lags in third place. If you also check their Klout scores, Jessica has 82, Phillips has 80, and Joshua has 75.
  • while Jessica enjoys worldwide attention, Phillips easily dominates North America with 115,000 followers, more than double either Joshua's (41,000) or Jessica' (38,000). this is the stat that matters the most, easily because the United States turns in almost 99% of the tally, aside from the few Skype calls outside US, if ever those votes come through. this means that Phillips enjoy a distinctly wide margin from the two competitors.

right here i'm introducing my idol twitter index (imaginary intellectual property right pending). by definition, it measures the estimated level of twitter engagement a particular contestant has with the portion of followers coming from North America.

           contestant: idol twitter index
 Phillips 350.52984
Sanchez    57.87756
Ledet 47.21196
Cavanagh 27.88416 

just to prove this point, let me add a Jessica Sanchez vs. Hollie Cavanagh scenario, as illustrated below, with the idol twitter index already calculated for the Top 4 contestants. it becomes obvious that among the Top 4, Ms. Cavanagh lagged behind in terms of twitter engagement with North Americans.

All rights reserved by Visually, Inc.

conclusions: this model predicts that Phillips will win the entire thing, which you can agree or disagree with. at least that's what the twitter numbers are saying: Phillips's followers easily outnumber either Ledet's or Sanchez's roughly 3:1.

now, the other slot in the finale is a toss-up between Joshua or Jessica, but based on this analysis, Jessica may get to the Top 2 because of a higher twitter engagement index and a higher Klout score, which could well translate a few more votes for her.

in the event that either Ledet or Sanchez has exited, we can statistically predict a 50%-50% split of the third placer's followers: 50% will go to Phillips, while 50% will go to the other finalist.

recommendations: if North Americans want Jessica or Joshua to win this thing, they have to double or even triple the amount of effort that Phillips's fans are currently doing. That's not even a guarantee, since his fanatics would might as well step up their game where it matters the most: the finale.

and that's my scientific take on american idol season 11 *bow*

an ocean of (in)difference

'man is a social being'. that's a basic tenet aside from the more sublime ones like 'man is greedy'.

kakabalik ko lang ng maynila mula sa probinsiya namin sa davao, and i'm both amused and scared by the lack of love in this part of the country.

case in point: i was on a jeepney headed for home, i was paying my fare, but nobody tried to reach out and hand the money to the driver.
ayun, kawawa ang kamay ng driver, dislocated joints and as flexible as overcooked spaghetti.
will probably end up as lastikman's double in the next pinoy movie flick.
i mean, seriously? wow people, c'mon.

another: i was there on the same jeepney, sat next to two people, probably a mother and her teenage daughter. they had their luggages on their lap.
as i sat next to them, she was pulling her daughter away from me. she was telling her daughter to look after her things, and that the daughter should be wary of me!
saying that, as if i was miles away from them & wasn't privy to their scheming conversation.
wow, again manila, great job of creating unnecessary paranoia.

third point: i was in queue waiting for my turn at the ATM. in front of me was a middle-aged woman. she was looking for something in her bag, presumably her bank card. her bag was wide open for the world to see. then she looked at me quizically, and instantly turned the other way and hid her large bag where i couldn't see. all that, while the security guard was just inches away from us.
c'mon woman. have some trust.

maybe i was just expecting a little too much. it's way different from what i've accustomed to.
or maybe, i'm just in the worst part of manila. a scary dog-eat-dog value system.

they say in a recent survey that the rudest place in 2011 for tourists were paris and london.
maybe that's why paris and london have gone cold, too much cosmopolitan air changing our values.

what's worrisome is that when you die, your immediate neighbors here in manila probably wouldn't care much. they're busy minding their own business. that's in stark contrast with the values in the province, where last week i attended the funeral service of our neighbor. the entire neighborhood & her distant relatives were there for her.

when i finish my training, which is several years away - this is me again thinking way ahead - i'm planning to retreat to the province, someplace where the people are kind, helpful and selfless.

someplace where a little love is not too much to ask.

the idea of death

our neighbor passed away just this week. she died while crossing the highway in front of our house and being hit by two speeding motorbikes.

i saw her lying flat on the concrete, her underside soaked in blood. i saw her. she was not moving. a lot of people came to help. an ambulance quickly appeared; she was brought to the hospital a few meters away. later, her children called to tell us that she did not make it.

i feel sorry for her family. we have known her and her family for a very long time now.

she was just crossing the street. seriously? in front of our house? i think there are some dark and mysterious otherwordly forces that lurk around our neighborhood. the national road is well-lit, with lamp posts every 100 meters or so. it's also a very straight linear route, no curves at all for more than a kilometer. it's a 4-lane stretch of concrete with wide shoulders on both sides.

it's almost a wonder why there's a freak accident happening at that exact same spot (in front of our gate) almost every year: in my lifetime, i've seen a bus, a truck, a pedicab, and now a mere pedestrian figuring in really terrible road accidents, and often these people have been declared dead on arrival when they get to davao regional hospital, a walking distance from our house.

my dad believe in spirits. i do.

from little kite studios, CC-by-NC-SA 3.0

here in our place, we call them not-like-ours, a euphemism for otherworldly creatures and spirits that lurk in the human world. it's the kind of silent recognition like in using he-who-must-not-be-named; you get the drift.

you've probably heard of unbelievable stories from your family, cousins, and friends about spiritual encounters. maybe you've seen tv documentaries of how tourists drown in one part of a mysterious river in the province of Rizal. in one story, one tourist recounts visiting to the spiritual world along with his friend after they've drowned together. they were offered the chance by the underwater spirits to stay there forever. he refused, but his friend chose to stay; later, he was rescued on the bank of the river, while his friend passed away.

the idea of death is really scary, especially if you're not prepared to leave this physical earth yet. i feel sorry for those who have not said their good-byes properly. i think if i had the choice, i would like the kind of death by cancer, like the bucket-list movie. morgan freeman's character was able to say good-bye properly, and i think cancer provides you enough time to do that. compare that with a cardiac arrest, a lethal stroke, a deadly road accident, et cetera.

the idea of death also reminds us that we are all gonna die, and that we are just transient material manifestations of the cosmos that is billions of years old. we are just like withering senescent leaves in a big old tree.

it's really a miracle, then, that we get to experience life in the first place.

what happened

i'm sorry star trek. it seems that in this particular generation, our comfy chairs are mankind's final frontier.

which college degree

this is something to think about for all high school kids out there,
and a shout out to my younger sister reviewing for the college entrance tests in the next few months.

us college graduates, on the other hand, might just as well laugh at our own wrong decisions in the past. *grin*


kids and airplanes

this was the highlight of my day: seeing an aerial spray plane briefly zooming past the field of view.
from the looks of it, the aircraft resembled the Ag Cat model.

it's basically for fertilizing and cropdusting (spraying nematicide and fungicide).
near our house sprawls acres upon acres of banana plantation, in this part of our small-sized city.

my sister and I had a random stroll at the awesome park near our house this morning.
then the plane came unannounced, and we missed taking a picture of it.
so we waited for it to come back, finger on the trigger, for almost one hour after that.

the anticipation was building, because we can hear its roaring engines somewhere near, but we couldn't see it. the frustration was palpable, and the 8 o'clock heat has become more and more unbearable these days, ain't it?

then it came back! click click click. it flew past in a matter of seconds, but it was a joy to behold.
we were easily overwhelmed with delight, no hint of our weariness whatsoever.

yes, deep inside, we're still kids like that.

summer perk-up songs

These songs are stuck on rewind mode for the past 30 days; just ask my brother & my sister who have to suffer with all the shuffling, singing, & shouting (read: bumibirit) I do around the house.

Tonight is the Night - Outasight

Sitting on Top of the World - Delta Goodrem

What Makes You Beautiful - cover by Alex Goot & the Wellington band

One Thing - One Direction

Call Me Maybe - cover by Paradise Fears

I should probably do this monthly roundup more often. It's kinda fun!